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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."