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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.