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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.